Monday, November 19, 2007

IMF says: "Good Luck"

I just came across a particular paragraph in IMF’s “Financial System Stability Assessment” (Country Report No. 07/361) on Turkey:

Macroeconomic volatility, especially because of the large current account deficit. Turkey remains dependent on capital inflows and thus on international investor sentiment. Moreover, continued efforts are still needed to anchor inflation at low levels, and the stock of government debt remains relatively high, albeit declining.

I thought that someone should translate these statements that bear some concealed contradictions:

It is distressing that macroeconomic stability of Turkey is at the mercy of the rationality of international investors. But, since the continuity of current inflation rates are directly subjected to the decline of exchange rates via capital inflows, intensification of this volatility is inevitable… Good Luck!

All the arguments of economists to maintain the macroeconomic stability are directed towards the question of ensuring the mental steadiness of international investors. The major fear is “what if they suddenly go insane one day?”

They like self-proclaimed “good” poker players, who believe that it is impossible to win at a table full of loose-aggressive maniacs, because there is always couple of players who are denying the odds and will outdraw you in later betting rounds. Their motto is: “Aces never hold up”

But the real danger lies in the presence of players who play rationally and who are counting the odds. They call when the odds are in their favor and fold when they are against them. This is where you’re really in need of the interference of good luck.


Renegade Eye said...

Turkey is playing a dangerous game. It might actually need a war with Iraq.

Mehmet Çagatay said...

Hello Ren,

On the other side of coin, a war with Iraq might cause an ultimate turmoil. If the oil prices will increase suddenly, Turkish economy will collapse. This is an enigmatic decision between shooting your own foot or not (!)

a aydin said...

Who said Iraq? Is there somebody believes that an indepentendent Iraq occurs? War with Iraq means war with USA. So, its nonsense for Turkey.

Renegade Eye said...

War with the USA? Maybe or maybe not. It depends how loyal they'll be to the Kurdish.

Phil BC said...

It's one thing to play diplomatic hardball, quite another to start shooting. There won't be a war with the USA.